MP Bonds Aug 11th

Hi alleyb,

What's your opinion on the current Tbond? Do you think it is way over bought?

Thanks,
luc

alleyb,

Thanks.

luc

note how we have blocked so far at the 19 level it is still a key level as is the 08 below

Hi alleyb,

Thanks for your comments.

A lot of people are saying that the top in bonds is near or in. However, looking at intraday charts, it looks to me that while there were news related sellings, buyers were holding the market up pretty well. What's your opinion from the MP perspective?

Luc

December bonds have several levels to consider at the moment 112.29 // 112.19 // 112.13 // 112.08 // 111.24 // 111.08 // and should i mention 113.22 // 113.31 //114.10. These levels are all in some form what I refer to as hidden MP Pivots and should be treated no different . ie long above short below
The bond market is a little ahead of the FED in that they are discounting the next move in FED rates as lower. Unlikely imho for the rhetoric the world over unless the CBs are all wrong is that the core inflation level has upward pressure for at least 12-18 months. Thats the fundamental background....now to the technical...Markets are being driven by flow which is overwhelming the normal day to day or hour to hour sequencing of ebb and flow of short term vs long term time frame traders and creating the effect of markets that trend without a single tic retracement and then when they do more than a couple of tic retracment you don't want to play for they have a habit of going further back through ie more than reversion to the mean...
Now to MP we had in the February quartile a trend quarter followed by an incomplete normal variation quarter which either has failed at 113.10 being a single print without anyone realising it or else will be complete by reaching for 114.10. right now I calculate that coming as at close Oct 5th the CTi2 is back to only long 2 lots having been as extended as +6 at one stage. They own these 2 lots at an average of 111.08 and they will likely have liquidated at least one before we revert back to challenge this level (when and if). 112.13 is the super key